Mar 05 2008
Bend appraiser calls for a bottom to the real estate market
Last week at the annual Central Oregon Forecast breakfast, local appraiser Dana Bratton, called for the market bottom out April 25th. Wow, that guy has guts! I’m not saying I disagree with him, but it takes a tremendous amount of chutzpah to make that sort of prediction.
Really, if you look at the numbers, he may not be far off. Last month in Bend, there were only 11 single family permits pulled. That is off of a high of 271 in June of ‘05 and 81 in January of last year. What that means is that virtually no new homes are being built, and if you factor in sales per month, and existing inventory, we should work through the overhang in inventory by about mid summer putting us back to an equilibrium.
At that point, prices should start to bottom out and start back to their long term trend line of 3-5% appreciation per year.
So who can you believe? Good question, but the Fed has said once they are done fighting the economic slowdown, they will redouble their efforts to fighting inflation, which means increases in interest rates, which for buyers means higher payments. Are we at the bottom? Nobody knows, but the house you see today, if you wait too long, could cost you more to own tomorrow. Remember, it is almost impossible to pick the bottom and most times you only recognize it after the market has turned up.
More Bend Real Estate Information from Woodhill Homes
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[…] Read a very interesting article over at the Realty Times site this afternoon about the outlook of the real estate market after the latest federal rate cut. You can read Mr. Kenneth R. Harney’s article here. Found this quote from the article particularly interesting: “Now despite all this, there continue to be clear signs that the housing market itself is finally bottoming out of its nearly three year post-boom correction…” Hmm, does that sound familiar…? […]